A liberal in moderate clothing

The Washington Post has a story today about so-called "centrist" Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson. I know first hand how difficult it is to beat a Democrat in the Heartland. Here's the first trick they pull:

"Nelson will never say he's a Democrat," said University of Nebraska political scientist John Hibbing. It's a smart strategy, he said, in a state where registered Republicans heavily outnumber Democrats but voters embrace an independent spirit reflected in their one-of-a-kind nonpartisan, unicameral legislature."

Nelson is clearly a smart politician. He repeats this message over and over again:

"I'll support the president when I can, oppose when I must. I'll always look for a compromise and solution when possible, and I won't obstruct."

Why it Works: "Contrast" is one of the essential ingredients for a persuasive message. By avoiding the "liberal" label -- or even the word "Democrat" -- Nelson deprives his opponents of the ability to make the race be about a conservative Republican vs. a liberal Democrat. This is good news for Nelson because once the conservative vs. liberal issue is taken off the table, Nebraska voters are left with the following criteria to pick a Senator: "Who has the most experience?" "Who is the most likeable?" and "Who can bring home the bacon?" Nelson, of course, wins these contests hands down.

This is straight out of the Dick Morris playbook of "triangulation." To use Morris' language, Nelson "hugs" Republicans on issues where Republicans win (In Nebraska, that's God, guns, etc.) and draws contrast with them on issues where Republicans are unpopular. It appears to me that it is nearly impossible for an insurgent campaign to win in this environment. It would take an opponent of an equally large stature -- and a commitment of support from the White House -- to oust Nelson.

It's going to be hard for Republicans to get to 60 seats, giving them a "filibuster-proof" majority...