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"Religion Gap" Widening
According to today's Washington Post, the "Religion Gap" is widening. A Pew Research Center poll released yesterday found that 29 percent of the public sees the Democratic Party as "generally friendly" toward religion, down from 40 percent a year ago and 42 percent in 2003. A 55 percent majority continues to see the GOP as friendly toward religion, according to the poll. ...Scott Keeter, Pew's director of survey research, said it appears that during the 2004 presidential race, Republicans succeeded in using Sen. John F. Kerry's support for abortion rights to raise doubts about the sincerity of the Democratic nominee's Catholic faith.
... Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg has another explanation: "The efforts that Democrats have made to talk about faith and to present a different image is still very much an insider effort in Washington. They haven't taken it to the nation yet," she said.
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Chicago Politics
 Federal investigators questioned Chicago Mayor Richard Daley last week for two hours in connection to questionable hiring practices in the city government. The Chicago Tribune had an extensive article on Sunday about the implications this could have for Daley and a possible sixth campaign for his beloved office. Mayor Daley appeared teary at a news conference on Friday following his questioning. The Tribune quoted one Democratic ward committeeman as saying, "There probably are more shoes to drop." With his job-approval ratings down from 75% two years ago to 53% now, one possible outcome is that the Mayor would not run for reelection. At this point, opponents of the mayor are biding their time to see what else comes of the investigation. The best thing for Mayor Daley is to cooperate with the investigators and make clear what he did and did not know. The longer this drags out, the worse it will be for him and his administration.
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Different, but not too Different
 Every candidate knows that he has to differentiate himself from the other candidates entered in a campaign. But a major problem for GOP senators hoping to run for the White House arises from their own current office. They have to cooperate with President Bush while they try to show how they are different from each other and him. National Journal's Hotline today has an article about this dilemma. It quoted Democrat strategist Mary Anne Marsh, who noted more repercussions for those senators who stray from the President on issues like stem cell and Iraq, "the [GOP] activists who dominate the nominating process are sticking with Bush on those issues."
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The Greatest Communicator!
 On my way back from Texas, I had the chance to read The Greatest Communicator by Dick Wirthlin. As you may know, Mr. Wirthlin was Ronald Reagan's pollster and strategist. This book is a must-read for anyone interested in communications. Although much has been written about Ronald Reagan, this book has lots of new stories, too. For me, the most interesting part was seeing an insider analyze Ronald Reagan's communication skills. According to Wirthlin, any politician can talk about "issues," but only a "great communicator" can take those issues and transcend them to values. Very, very good stuff. On a personal note, I recommend reading as much as you can about Ronald Reagan. I find it to be uplifting and edifying. Studying Reagan won't just make you a good communicator -- it'll make you a better person!
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The Politics of BRAC
Following up on one of my recent blogs, it turns out that John Thune keeps his military base! Same is true for Congressman Rob Simmins. Robert Bluey over at Human Events says there are two Republicans breathing easier today.
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Indecisive Candidates Hurting GOP
Today's Chi cago Tribune highlights the latest frustration for Republican leadership: good candidates stringing the party along. Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert asked Former IL Governor Jim Edgar to make a decision soon on a possible run to return to the governor's seat. Hastert is quite right in saying, "He ought to just make a decision because if he doesn't, he holds up all of the other caniddates and the money." The Republican primary already has several candidates, including dairy chain owner Jim Oberweis, IL State Senator Steve Rauschenberger, and State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka. Hastert has supported all of them, in one race or another, in the past. Read more here.
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What a Tangled Web
A Marion, IL, woman created an elaborate and terrible hoax, faking the existence and death of a soldier in Iraq. The Chicago Tribune discovered the truth when looking for Sgt. Dan Kennings supposedly-orphaned girl, Kodee. Here's the article.
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If It Ain't Broke . . .
National Journal's Hotline today also looked at the war in Iraq and President Bush's recent return to strong rhetoric. He is returning to language he used in his reelection campaign, such as, "An immediate withdrawal of our troops in Iraq, or the broader Middle East, as some have called for, would only embolden the terrorists and create a staging ground to launch more attacks against America." The Hotline quotes Republican strategist Scott Reed, who sees the need for the President to shift attention from war protests and discontent, "The only way you change the subject is to get on the offense. It also may be time to get on the serious offense in Iraq in a military way." After being on the defensive for quite some time, the President is returning to offense. Now, he can control part of the discussion and media coverage on the war on terrorism.
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 I'm traveling to Austin, TX tomorrow, and will be speaking in Waco on Saturday (if you're in our neck of the woods, stop in). Just wanted to let you know that blogging will be light for the next couple days ...
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Wishful Thinking???
The Washington Times speculates the Iraq War could actually pose a problem for ... Democrats." ... a growing disconnect between the party's establishment hawks and an increasingly anti-war base could foretell an even bigger crackup on the Democratic than the Republican side," said Mr. Drum, a writer for the Washington Monthly. "
... "You can be sure that Karl Rove would do his best to hammer such a wedge straight through the heart of the party come election time. So both Democratic factions would be well-advised to do some serious thinking before their disagreements get out of hand."
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Don't Backpedal!
 Pat Robertson has committed a political faux-pas. (I'm not referring to his recent comments about assasination. I'm referring to his recent backpedal and apology.) Here's the backpedal 4-Step 1. You take a tough principled stand (this offends liberals). 2. Liberals attack. 3. You apologize (thus, offending conservatives.) 4. Liberals still hate you. Conservatives think you're a wimp.
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Fighting Like Liberals
Brendon Miniter at OpinionJournal.com writes that conservatives have stolen the liberals playbook. More.
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Uff Dah!
Having spent a year in North Dakota, I found Bob Novak's column interesting. Novak raises the question: Why are they closing John Thune's base in South Dakota -- and saving Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad's base in North Dakota???
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More on T.O. and The Stones ...
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Trying to be more eloquent ...
I'm currently reading Eloquence in an Electronic Age: The Transformation of Political Speechmaking. Although I am only about a third of the way through, I would already feel comfortable recommending it to you. Have you noticed that the techniques and vocal style that inspired millions to follow FDR, William Jennings Bryan, or even John F. Kennedy, might actually be a "turn-off" in today's world? Do you think Bill Clinton's empathic style would have worked in an earlier time??? Eloquence explains how communication has evolved over the years.
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Tygh Bailes of The Leadership Institute will be talking about politics on Oklahoma City's KTOK this Sunday night at 8:30 pm (ET). To listen, click here (then click on "live streaming audio.")
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More T.O.
A reader emailed me his thoughts on T.O.: Is Owens putting himself above the team? Sure he is and his comments are incredibly stupid. However, has he committed a crime or cheated? Sure he has five years left on his contract but if that broken leg had ended his career last year, you think the Eagles would've honored that contract? What's another million to these billionaire owners who ask the public to pay for their stadiums. Give the man his money, he earned it. Rosenhaus was right when he said at the same time he's asking for a new contract for TO the Bengals called to say they're cutting another one of his clients who has five years left on his contract. To quote Rosenhaus "it stinks." Here's a good open letter to T.O. ...
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Sound Bites of the Day ...
"If you want to know where someone stands, just look at who they stand with." Jerry Kilgore (R) spokesperson Tucker Martin on why alleged moderate Tim Kaine (D) shouldn't have hired a liberal media firm. (Democrats) "used to tell people you have nothing to fear but fear itself. Now they have nothing to offer but fear itself." RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman to Ohio County (WV) GOPers.
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TIVO and Campaign Ads ...
Recently, Joe Trippi sat down with the Daily Kos guy for a public discussion over the importance of blogs. During the interview, Simon Rosenberg, founder of the New Democrat Network, had this to say: In 2008, as many as half of all voters may have a TIVO-like device at home - meaning they can skip 30 second spots. How do you run a presidential campaign when half of your targets aren't watching television commercials anymore? Very consistent with this.
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Okay, I'm a Slacker ...
Once, I vowed never to be the kind of guy who posts blogs to explain why he doesn't post blogs. I lied. Or I overestimated. In any event, I've become, "one of those guys." I have some excuses, though ... First, it's August. As you know, politics in DC comes to a crawl in August -- particularly the kind of politics we talk about here (which is heavy on tactics and light on policy). So there hasn't been a lot of material. Second, I've undertaken a new and fairly large project of working in the corporate world. No longer am I just a political guy. Now, I wear cuff-links ... Third, I've been doing a lot of writing for Campaigns & Elections Magazine, Human Events and Personal Democracy Forum ... Not that that's an excuse. Lastly, this is the time of year when you don't have an intern. Sure, August is great for sports enthusiasts (baseball and football talk!) -- but it's heck for those of us who are overly-reliant on interns. Just look at the last several weeks of posts and you'll see this blog should've been "Nancy Madsen and the News." Why did she abandon us for Wheaton??? Why??? So for all these reasons, the blog has been sub-par for about a week. Oh yeah, I also have had Outlook problems. This has prevented me from sending out my campaign tips in a timely fashion. I just know there's some candidate out there who is about to get "off message" -- and it's all my fault! In general, I've had about as good an August as Bush has. The thing is, he gets to clear brush and ride bikes with Lance Armstrong, while I'm stuck in DC trying to fix Outlook -- and hoping against hope the Nat's can win their division against the Braves. At least the weather has cooled off.
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The Post today wonders if Bill Frist made a mistake in going against the conservative base on stem-cell research ... Every winner of the Republican presidential nomination since Ronald Reagan in 1980 has had significant support from social conservatives, won in large measure by embracing stands acceptable to antiabortion groups. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who denounced the religious right during his bid for the 2000 Republican presidential nomination, was defeated that year by George W. Bush, who had worked hard to cultivate social conservatives.
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Shameless Self Promotion ...
 Check out my new article about the Rolling Stones over at Human Events ...
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4 Iraq Vets to Run
The Washington Post is reporting that four veterans of the Iraq war are planning on running for Congress next year. Amy Walter, a political handicapper and senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said the candidates' experience will help distinguish them from their opponents. And for the Democrats, whose party has had long-standing problems proving its toughness, their Iraq tours will give them credibility on national security issues. But she attributed Hackett's showing to a number of factors that had little to do with his service -- and said other veterans will need more than just the Iraq issue to come out on top.
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Liberals lag conservatives in political blog presence
According to the Washington Times, a new study says liberals are behind conservatives in the blogosphere ...
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 CALL TO ACTION: SEND OUT SOCIAL SECURITY E-BIRTHDAY CARD In celebration of Social Security's 70th Birthday on August 14th, Generations Together created an e-birthday card to remind everyone of the importance of making Social Security solvent so that it provides for future generations of American workers. We ask that you send the e-card to your friends, relatives, Senators and U.S. Representatives -- anyone and everyone in your address book that you believe should know about the importance of Social Security reform. Encourage them to send it on to their friends and contacts who may be interested. We want as many Americans as possible to see and hear this message and your help is critical. Thank you in advance for your support in spreading the word. The e-card can be accessed by going here.
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Controlling the Message
 Christopher Cooper's article in the Wall Street Journal yesterday showed that once again, the Bush Administration has mastered controlling, and sticking to, the message. He shows how President Bush is able to use his "working vacation" to his advantage: [A] captive press corps and a slow summer news cycle are allowing President Bush to use the Crawford backdrop to push his agenda, far from the distractions of Washington. . . Mr. Bush's August holidays also demonstrate how the administration adroitly times and airs its message. With Congress out of session, many Washington agencies on a vacation schedule and a traveling contingent of White House reporters cooling their heels in Crawford, Mr. Bush can count on dictating news coverage with a series of events that rely heavily on rhetoric and skimp on audience participation.
The opportunity to monopolize the news coverage, without much opposition, cannot be missed for candidates or public officials. The Bush Administration uses August well by using the time to focus on only their message. They can easily ignore the Valerie Plame case and legislative falterings without much resistance.
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Where the Apple Falls
According to this anecdotal evidence, Republican parents don't want "starving artist" children living in their basement.
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Values Do Matter
 Democratic strategists find that their party has a huge gap with voters that should be theirs: lower-income, less-educated voters. The problem? Moral values. In the Washington Post article, Dan Balz showed the strategists were surprised by the results of the Democracy Corps focus-group study. They interviewed four groups of rural and disaffected voters from Wisconsin, Arkansas, Colorado, and Kentucky. These voters were unhappy with current economic policy and the leadership and direction of the country. But even more powerful was their perception of Democrats as "inconsistent and hostile to traditional values." This fear of losing traditional values totally negated the negative feelings towards Republicans. What was the Democratic strategists' response? They concluded that "Democrats need a reform-oriented, anti-Washington agenda to overcome the culture gap." Wrong conclusion. To reach voters who vote on values, they will need a pro-family, pro-life, pro-marriage platform. The message to Republicans is: keep campaigning on moral values.
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The Permanent Campaign
When does the next campaign start? The day after the election. This FoxNews article looks at the pros and cons of constantly campaigning, even once a seat is secured. One thing this article did not consider is the effect of campaign finance laws on the election cycle. Since the 70s, regulations have allowed less large donations and outlawed "soft money." These rules, along with the need to reach voters through television, have made candidates start fundraising as early as possible. Notice that many potential presidential candidates for 2008 have already started to fill their coffers. Since money is the fuel for campaigns, the need for it drives candidates to start earlier.
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Dan Flynn has posted a very good four-part interview with Howard Phillips. Although I certainly don't agree with all his arguments, it is well worth reading.
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Appearances can be Deceiving
 In the Washington Times today, Martin Seiff reviewed Laurence Leamer's biography of California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. There are two profound characteristics of Arnold's weightlifting, film, and political career. First, others often underestimated him. But, despite nay-sayers, he became Mr. Olympus, a popular movie actor, and governor of California, the richest, most populous state in the union. Secondly, Gov. Schwarzenegger has collected brilliant, motivated people around him to help him consider and enact policy. Even though the press clamors about how Schwarzenegger is inarticulate, he does not feel the need to prove himself smarter than his experts. Seiff points out that this inferiority "bedeviled the careers and presidential campaigns of Al Gore and John Kerry." Seiff rightly draws a strong analogy between Gov. Schwarzenegger and Presidents Bush and Reagan. The best leaders are motivated, not dragged down, by critics and use the strengths of their staffs to effectively reach the goals. They see a bigger picture than just themselves.
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Nancy Madsen
This is Nancy's last week as a full-time intern for The Campaign Leadership Company, LLC. The good news is that Nancy will continue writing for us as much as possible. Nancy, thanks for your hard work. You are very talented and will make a great writer/journalist!
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Opposition Training
 This past weekend, the Democratic National Committee held the Hispanic Leadership Conference to train Latino Democrats in grassroots strategies and organization. The San Antonio Express-News had an article about the event, which hosted about 400 Hispanics in downtown San Antonio. They shared a few lessons with the attendees from which conservatives can learn. First of all, Democrat leaders are looking to gain favor from local election officials, "Anna Martinez of the DNC's National Lawyers Council urged participants to connect with election officials. . . Local involvement is critical, she said, because there are few national election laws and most of them are interpreted by state or local governments." Trying to influence local election officials definitely seems shady. However, there are ways to counter this. Most counties try to get a balance of Democrat and Republican poll workers. My mother was recruited to help in Minnesota, which has a complicated same-day registration process. She found her Democrat colleague registering out-of-state college students with their out-of-state drivers' licenses. Poll workers should fairly enforce the law, not seek to give their party an upper hand. The other piece of advice conservatives should emulate. These Democrat precinct leaders were told, "Find a story about a family that has suffered because of a policy. Then tell people about that family." Republicans should also seek to connect with people. Connecting does not happen through sound logic or sweeping statistics. People identify with stories about real people. However, because we have a Republican president, Republicans would want to use positive policy stories.
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Attention, Young Conservatives!
If you want a political career, you should intern. Interning takes you beyond the textbook material of "how a bill becomes a law" or "the three branches of government" into the real world of politics. Hopefully, you've learned those basics, but to understand the complexity and unpredictability of politics, you must see it in action.
Internship Suggestions: - Aim for DC. Everyone has a different internship experience. For me, interning in Washington, DC, has been exhilarating. I love the atmosphere and speed of life here. I would highly recommend interning in DC, if at all possible.
- Get a practical internship. Here at Campaign Leadership Company, I have done a lot of work besides answering phones. I think getting this experience of actually working in my internship has been invaluable. So, find an internship where you will get real work experience. If you want a prestige internship, like many Congressional internships, do that in addition to, not instead of, a working one.
- Find conservative allies. As a young conservative, interning with experienced conservatives has given me great insight into the political process and the conservative movement. I would highly recommend either interning with a conservative organization or finding a conservative mentor who give you wise insight.
Hints for a successful internship: - Be prepared. Before your internship begins, create a few learning goals for yourself. These goals should include both learning the real way politics work and improving skills. A week or so into the internship assess those goals and modify them, if needed.
- Work hard. Do the mundane tasks with as much enthusiasm as possible. The glamorous tasks will come later. Use your strengths and improve your weaknesses.
- Start a network. Finally, be prepared to meet people and stay in contact with those you do meet. This networking will help you tremendously if and when you start a political career.
Do your best and enjoy your internship!
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Sunday Political News ...
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Up on the Rooftop
 Here's a picture from our party a few weeks ago. Our guests included attendees from various conservative organizations: the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Washington Times, Human Events, HSP Mail House, National Right to Work, BMW Direct Mail, the Leadership Institute, and several Congressional offices. Thank you to Furlow Strategies for co-hosting the event.
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Wedge Issues
Folks who follow political campaigns are familiar with the term, "wedge issue." The goal is to drive a "wedge" between your opponent and his assumed base constituency. In 1988, George H.W. Bush used the issue of the Boston Harbor (it was the most polluted body of water in America) to drive a wedge between environmentalists and MA Gov. Mike Dukakis. As we speak, Democrats are attempting to drive a wedge between conservatives and Judge Roberts by bringing out the fact that he once, "helped gay-rights activists win a landmark Supreme Court anti-discrimination case."
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Importance of Terminology
 When Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other administration officials started using a new phrase to describe measures against terrorism, analysts over-emphasized the importance of the new terminology. They began to say that the phrase "the global struggle against violent extremism" indicated a shift in administration policy as compared to the previous "war on terror." President Bush has put that all to rest by using "war on terror" five times and "war" 13 more times in a 47-minute speech on Wednesday. Other administration officials have returned to the semi-official phrase, as well. Here is the New York Times article on the short life of the new phrase. The press and public attach huge significance to any wording changes. Although the Bush administration had not announced any policy changes, everyone expected that new words mean new policies. And now that President Bush has kept to the same rhetoric, the press and analysts understand that there will be NO changes in addressing or acting against terrorism.
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