GOTV a Major Factor in '06 Elections ...

The latest edition of Chuck Todd's always informative "On the Trail" column for National Journal has some interesting insights regarding the '06 cycle. In fact, he lists the 10 things about '06 that "keep him from getting a good night's sleep."

Interestingly, 2 of the 10 things that keep him up at night involve get-out-the-vote:

1. Democratic GOTV
This is at the top because it's probably the biggest mystery of the cycle. It's not clear who is funding get-out-the-vote efforts for the Democrats this year, or more important, who is running them. Is it a coordinated state-based campaign with a loose connection to the Democratic National Committee? Is it labor, and if so, which part -- John Sweeney's the AFL-CIO or Andy Stern's SEIU? And where did all the money from America Coming Together go? Will even half of it make it back into Democratic coffers in some capacity? There are still lots of unanswered questions, and Election Day is less than five months away.

4. Overestimating The 72-Hour Program
After the GOP's victory in Calif.-50, we sensed not just relief among Republican strategists, but borderline cockiness. The conceit is due to the incredible confidence the party has in the 72-hour program. Clearly, the Republicans have come up with both a formula and a strategy for GOTV that has allowed the Republicans to not only catch up to Democrats and labor, but perhaps surpass them.

That said, a turnout program is only as successful as its worst election night. So, until the 72-hour program proves it can turn losses into wins (like it may have done in Calif.-50), then the jury's still out. The 72-hour program needs a fired up activist base to work. What if the base is depressed? Will as many phone calls be made? Will as many volunteers show up?