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Nofziger on Political Leadership
On Tuesday, I talked about Lyn Nofziger, the mentor. Well, I thought I'd share with you a few of the wit and wisdom I learned from him over the years ... 1. On the press: "... anyone can lie to the press, but confusing them with the truth is an art I am proud to have mastered." 2. On hardball: "I don't know why, but an awful lot of Republicans look on politics as the British look on cricket -- as a gentleman's game. It ain't; it's more like mud wrestling." 3. On campaigning: The "Nofziger thesis" states that, "... winning an election does not mean catering to the press. Winning an election means doing the things and having your candidate do the things that he can do most effectively and that will influence the most votes." 4. On staying "on message": "Most candidates have a compulsive urge to answer a question. It was my job, it is always someone's job in a campaign, to keep the candidate and the campaign on track. Otherwise, the other guy wins." 5. On frequent press conferences: "They convince the media that he's not afraid of them and that he may even, perish the thought, have their best interests at heart. They mean any person holding frequent press conferences doesn't have to remember so much or have to be briefed so thoroughly before each press conference. They mean the media has fewer topics about which to ask which again means the public figure has less to be concerned about..." 6. On campaign leadership: "One thing you quickly learn in politics is that, while the United States is a democracy and must be, campaigns cannot be. Somebody has to be in charge and the fewer who think they're at least somewhat in charge the better off the campaign is." 7. On delegating: "Reagan was the best candidate I have ever known because he instinctively knew what a candidate's role should be, just as later he instinctively knew the proper role of a president. He interfered only when these same instincts told him someone was making a wrong decision. " 8. Maybe his best line: At the '76 convention, "... an old-line Reaganite from San Mateo, called out, 'What should our demeanor be?' Without thinking, I replied, 'Da meaner da better." 9. On political "insiders": "While the party leaders may support a candidate for his dedication to and work in the party, most persons who vote in a primary don't give a hoot about the wishes of the party leaders." 10. On titles: "... out in the real world there is something special about the term "special assistant." It has a more important ring than just plain "assistant" and nobody ever heard of a deputy assistant." 11. On holding their feet to the fire: "I'm not even going to let them get away with the truth" (a witty comeback to President Nixon's instructions to him "Don't let them get away with any lies.") 12. On gimmicks: "Self-important people in the White House use two gimmicks to let us know they are important. One is to have their secretary tell your secretary that 'the White House is calling.' The other is to say, 'The president wants this done." 13. On political courage: "I learned from him, them, something I should have known all along: there are different types of courage. Leo was a brave flier and a brave prisoner, doing things in battle and enduring things as a POW that make me shrink to think of. But he lacked political courage." 14. On ground rules: "... never never talk to a reporter without setting the ground rules. If you don't, and he writes a story, you have only yourself to blame." 15. On debates: "There are a couple of rules regarding political debates that presidential candidates violate at their peril. One: it is almost always a mistake for an incumbent to debate unless he thinks he's going to lose." ***Note: These quotes come from the book, Nofziger (which I highly recommend). If you are interested in learning more about Lyn Nofziger, I also recommend Bare Knuckles and Backrooms and Reagan's Revolution... A few more observations: He was a gentleman. When my wife would accompany us to our occasional breakfasts (before she was my wife), he was always the most gentlemanly person; he would always walk on the street-side of the sidewalk, open doors, and help remove lady's coats. I got an email yesterday from a DC police officer who worked the beat near Lyn's old office in DC. He writes, "Mr. Nofziger and I became friends. Anything function that he had I was always invited." He will be missed.
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MI Race Gets Nasty...
One race that is really heating up is the gubernatorial race in Michigan between Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) and Amway heir Richard DeVos (R). Until recently, Granholm was wildly popular. I remember hearing people bemoan the fact that (because she was Canadian), she could not run for president. As you know, Michigan continues to lose jobs. In '04, the Bush team tried in vain to tie Granholm to Michigan's woes. Rather than blaming her, voters rallied around her, and handed Bush a defeat. Well, for some reason, the mood has changed. Voters are finally blaming Gov. Granholm -- and this race is tightening. Of course, candidates with their back against the wall are more likely to lash out at their opponent. This race is no exception: According to today's Hotline, "MI Dems issued a release shortly after Jack Abramoff's sentencing, claiming that the lobbyist "has long been an ally" of Amway heir Dick DeVos (R). MI Dem chair Mark Brewer: "The public needs to know Dick DeVos has had meetings with criminally corrupt GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff." That was yesterday's news. Today, the Dems have issued a press release regarding Devos' resignation from the state Board of Ed. The truth is that he resigned because of a family health crisis. His father had a severe heart attack and Mr. DeVos had to take over the company. Of course, Republicans have issued their own release on the subject... Apparently, attacking the family is now fair game...this race is getting nasty.
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What Dems Want...
National Journal's Hotline Reports: Luntz Maslansky Strategic Research presented its findings on the '08 Dem field this a.m. to reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast. Their focus groups tested Dem primary voters in NH and IA.
What do Dems want? Per the survey results: "When all is said and done, the emocratic nominee will be the person they believe has the best handle on the future and who can best bring about the change and reform they are desperately seeking." And "perhaps most importantly, they want the anti-Bush" who is not a "Bush basher." The Dems "don't want a grouchy, accusatory, finger-pointing yeller. They want someone smart but with good common sense, a leader with new ideas who believes and practices accountability."
The survey offers "10 Commandments For Democrats." They include: 1. Don't "feel my pain" -- "give me something to alleviate it. 3. Dems "don't want to hear about your church" in the primary. If they "really cared," they'd be Republicans. 6. "Be a Deficit Democrat. Every time a Democratic candidate talked about ending wasteful spending and tackling the deficit, the dials spiked up, as did the approval."
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Today is the anniversary of the assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan. Despite being seriously injured, Reagan's humorous remarks (which were first told to the public by Lyn Nofziger), went a long way toward reassuring the nation: "When one of the doctors said they were going to operate on me, I said, 'I hope you're a Republican.' He looked at me and said, 'Today, Mr. President, we're all Republicans.' I also remember saying, after one of the nurses asked me how I felt, '[All in all, I'd rather be in Philadelphia' - the old W. C. Fields line. "This was a very dangerous time, and I believe America was on the precipice of disaster. You have to remember, this was at a time when we had a series of leaders, such as JFK, MLK, RFK, Malcolm X, and even John Lennon -- had all been slain. America was still trying to recover from Vietnam, there were hostages, etc. Keeping in mind the depressing state of the country at the time, there is no telling what the ramifications of Reagan's death might have been... And I'm not talking about how the conservative movement would have been affected if Reagan had died before his Revolution -- I'm talking about whether or not America would be America if Reagan had died. If you haven't read When Character Was King, you should. It is a great book. But perhaps the most important thing I got out of it was just how close Ronald Reagan was to dying. There are times in our history when it appears there was Divine intervention. And, to me, this was one of them.
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Quit Your Day Job...
National Journal writes, "Mitt Romney and John Edwards have some extra time on their hands lately, and it might be helping their potential presidential candidacies." I don't doubt it. Campaigning is serious business. Even at the state-level, I have seen that those candidates who try to run for state rep -- and keep a full-time job -- rarely have enough time to devote to the race.
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More Lyn Nofziger Tributes
We are all still dealing with the loss of Lyn Nofziger, this week. Here is another great article about Lyn Nofziger... ...And here's another. BTW, how cool was it that, at his age, he still had a blog!
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Often, there is a struggle between doing what is right in terms of policy, versus doing the smart political (pragmatic) thing. This immigration issue is tougher. Even if you put the policy stuff aside, it is such a "wedge issue" that no matter what Republicans do, we are in trouble. Simply put, the immigration issue is a political hot potato for Republicans. A few years ago, I authored an article for Campaigns & Elections on how to attract the Hispanic vote. This issue seeks to destroy all the groundwork that has been laid by Republicans who seek to build bridges with the Hispanic community. From a political standpoint, there is no upside to dealing with this. But ignoring it is also problematic (from a political perspective). In politics, a maxim is to "dance with the one that brung ya.'" All Bush has left is his base -- and if he ticks off the base -- what does he have left? Yes, this is a very difficult issue. Here's some background reading info for you: ...A R euters article asks if Republicans should alienate Hispanics or conservatives. ... Dick Morris weights in on the subject. ...The AP reports that Spanish-Language Media helped turn out the protesters in LA. ... NY Times quotes Grover Norquist: "There is a danger that if the face of the Republican Party is Tancredo that we could be weaker with Hispanics for generations," Mr. Norquist said. "If the face of the Republican Party is George Bush or Ronald Reagan, we win. This is up for grabs." ... The Washington Post Fix Blog writes: "... immigration (illegal and otherwise) falls into the same issue matrix with voters as issues like abortion, gun control and congressional ethics. None of these issues ever rate highly when people are asked about the pressing issues the country's leaders should address, but they are significant drivers of the political debate because of the passion they evoke."
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The hiring of a new White House Chief of Staff has made me think about this point: It is ironic that this president -- who admires Ronald Reagan -- has failed to learn one of Reagan's most important lessons: The art of schmoozing. Unlike his predecessor, Jimmy Carter (who ran and governed as an outsider), Ronald Reagan understood the need to develop friends and allies in the press and in Congress. Symbolic of Carter's disdain for Washington was his 1977 selling of the presidential yacht -- the Sequoia -- which was often used by presidents to schmooze members of Congress. Reagan, of course, was almost always the exact opposite of Carter. Though he also ran as an outsider, Reagan understood that for his presidency to succeed, he would need to stroke the egos of the Washington elite. It takes a humble man to subject himself to stroking the egos of lesser men. This would mean attending dinners and dinner parties (even when he didn't feel like it) with pretentious people who would stab him in the back the next day. Reagan did it dutifully. In short, he would be, "in the DC world, but not of the DC world." In fairness, Reagan was no doubt helped by his days as an actor and governor of California, and by his wife, Nancy. For example, the Reagan's friendship with former Washington Post president Katherine Graham, is one example of that. Still, he understood that after campaigning to become president, he would then have to campaign to be president. The presidency is a heady job. Upon attaining that perch, you might conclude that you will never have to again be deferential to any person or institution. But the truth is that none of us are ever so important that we can afford to be through with the business of cajoling. Not if we want to get things done, that is. Has George W. Bush finally learned that lesson?
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Classic Political Ads
 If you are a political junkie, you'll love this site of classic political ads!Want to see the infamous " Daisy" ad (the first "negative ad" -- which Lyndon Johnson used against Barry Goldwater)? Just click the picture of the little girl with the flower. Or do you want to see the " Morning Again in America" ad that Reagan used in '84? ...How about the Willie Horton ad that finished off Michael Dukakis? It's in there, too.
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There is a lot of political news this morning... Andy Card has resigned as President Bush's Chief of Staff. This strikes me as a move that should have, quite frankly, been made a few months ago. Andy Card was very good at his job -- but it is a very demanding job. In fact, here is what I wrote over a month ago. I hope this helps build some new momentum... '527' Legislation Would Affect Democrats MoreFEC rules exempt blogs from political limits: From the Washington Post: Conservative blogger Mike Krempasky wrote: 'This is a tremendous win for speech.' Liberal blogger Duncan Black, writing under the pseudonym Artios, said: 'This could have been an utter disaster, but it appears to have all worked out in the end."
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"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Franklyn "Lyn" Nofziger, the rumpled and irreverent conservative who served President Reagan as press secretary and political adviser, died of cancer Monday at his home in Falls Church, Virginia. He was 81."Today, the conservative movement mourns the loss of one of our heroes.
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The Dangers of Blogging
I've long told people "I'm not a 'blogger'." Instead, I'm a political guy with a blog. Like any phenomenon, there are some people who actually derive their entire identity from blogging. To me, that's sort of like putting the medium before the message. And the ones who are wildly successful at it tend to remind me of Paris Hilton (they are famous for being famous.) Today's National Journal's Blogometer makes a good point about the different kinds of bloggers... "The voices we feature in Blogometer are a mix of the expert who blogs part-time as an extra outlet, and the amateur whose blog is his/her only way of being heard. Some of the latter, perhaps, become successful beyond their ability..."I'm a fan of the written word. And I enjoy the medium of blogging. I see it as one venue to communicate, but not as a means unto itself. (Note: I am referring now to part-time bloggers. If you are a journalist, then this doesn't apply to you. It is your job to write). The lesson to be learned from this whole blogger controversy is that we all have to be very careful what we post. The pen is mightier than the sword -- and it cuts both ways. Unlike writing a column, blogging allows you to post something instantly. Of course, the danger is that you don't have a lot of time to revise and moderate your thoughts. This is the world-wide web, folks -- and everything you write can (and will) and will be used against you.
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Ethics, Movies, Books, & Tips...from the weekend
Sorry that blogging has been minimal these last two days. Here's what I've been up to... ...My panel discussion at American University went well (aside from the fact that it took place at 9:45 on a Saturday morning). Here are a few of the topics we discussed:- "Bottom-feeder" political consultants who prey on weak candidates.- How an "end justifies the means" mentality can lead young political operatives down a dangerous path.- Whether or not the "lesser of two evils" theory is a good one (when determining which campaigns to work for).- How "negative politics" has always been around. In fact, it can be argued that things are more "tame" than ever....Speaking of ethics, the Red America blog came to an unfortunate end on Friday. The story is still developing, and hopefully it won't end up like this. After the panel discussion... ...Yesterday, I read Army of Davids. Here' s my take: For someone who hasn't read Toffler, Pink, or Florida, this book could be life-changing. But if you are familiar with the genre, it is still good, but less than "revolutionary." ...Last night, I went to see Thank You for Smoking (warning, this movie link has sound). I give it "2 thumbs up." Anyone who likes this blog ought to go see this movie. Political Tips from the Weekend:...When it comes to press conferences, never forget how important the "stage" is. For the GOP, this bad visual (warning: link has sound) is the gift that keeps on giving. ...Should a front-runner agree to debate his opponent? The Akron Beacon Journal's blog explains why it might not be a winning proposition.
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More Red America controversy at the Post... Man, I'm not sure why, but the liberals have really come unglued about this. I guess the MSM is all they've got left, so they are willing to fight tooth-and-nail to protect it.
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Matt's Summer Tour '06
Thank goodness it's Thursday! Hey, in case you are interested, it looks like I will be in both Austin, TX, and Orange County, CA, this summer, doing training. Speaking of which, for some weird reason, Californians dig this blog. I'm not sure why, but my stats always show that (by far) most of my readers come from CA. Granted, it's a big state -- but so is Texas. And I've done waaaay more training in Texas than I have in CA. If you have any thoughts on why that is...I am curious to hear them. And I know I shouldn't "mess with Texas" -- but California is making you guys look pretty weak (so tell your friends about this blog)... Oh yeah, and don't forget I am still looking for some ideas regarding my panel discussion at American University, this Saturday. The topic is ethics in campaigns. If you have any thoughts or stories, please do drop me an email...
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Over at RedState, Blanton says it's time for some older conservative leaders to have an, um, exit strategy...
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The Smoking Gun has posted Vice President Cheney's travel requirements. Quite frankly, it is very modest. I've been involved in working with much lesser-known politicians and celebrities who have much more extensive "requests." I don't see this simple one-pager as evidence that he is being high-maintenance. On the contrary, it is actually respectful to provide a simple list of your requirements that can be easily faxed to your host. For example, if you were to bring me to your town to speak, I have some standard requests that I can fax you... Temperature in room: 67.3 degrees Fahrenheit
TV's tuned to Andy Griffith reruns
Six-pack of Tab (soft drink) on ice (ice should not be chipped)
Latest issues of Vanity Fair, Human Events, and Sports Illustrated
Ala George Castanza, sheets should not be tucked in.
No carbs served (except wheat bread or whole grain)
Foam pillows (not down)
I will necessitate a driver (you can pick me up -- no need for a hired car)
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We've Got Email...
My previous post about "targeting" generated this email question... Matt,
I was reading your piece on targeting. In your experience, would you consider the "Swing Voters" that you target ato be D's and R's who vote in General Elections but not the primary because if they are voting consistenly voting in that party's primary, then they are solid D's or R's? Is this fair to say?...Here' s my response: In a word: Yes.
First, a distinction: The blog I posted today about targeting has more to do with how presidential candidate's and party committee's focus on certain states (and ignore others). Your question involves a political candidate who focuses on certain voters (and ignores others).
Both can be effective ways of utilizing your limited resources to get "more bang for your buck."
Of course, this is a major decision that involves many strategic factors... Having said that, here is my general advice for targeting voters in a general election:
1. Start with a list of likely voters (for example, people who have voted in 2 of the last 3 elections).
2. Eliminate Republican and Democrat Primary Voters
3. Target the rest
By doing this, you will be focusing your resources on eligible, registered, likely, persuadable voters.
Technically, a "swing voter" is defined as someone who votes Republican sometimes and Democrat sometimes. This is different than a "ticket splitter," which can be defined as someone who (on the same ballot) votes for a Democrat and a Republican.
Don't get too hung up on that. Go with the formula I gave you above, and you will be good.
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In Defense of Targeting...
Over at The Hill, pollster Mark Mellman is making the case for "targeting": "Targeting has somehow become a dirty word in some Democratic circles. Our egalitarianism resists giving more attention to some states and less to others. But in a close presidential contest, targeting can make all the difference. A change of 59,000 votes in Ohio would have made John Kerry president, even while he lost the national popular vote by 3 million. That is the potential power of focus."
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Location, Location, BAD Location!
...Speaking of where to hold an effective campaign press conference, here's an example of what happens when you cross the line and go a bit too far. According to The Detroit News: "Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer gave a glimpse of the low road his party intends to follow in this year's gubernatorial campaign when he attempted to hold a press conference at the Dick DeVos for Governor campaign headquarters in Lansing. Police had to be called to end Brewer's stunt and escort him away. It was a classless act."
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Any good PR professional will tell you that the backdrop of a press conference matters. So instead of holding a boring press conference in some hotel conference room, hold it at a location that actually underscores your message. According to the Washington Times, Republicans are criticizing a Democrat memo which encourages members of Congress to do just that... "Democratic leaders also recommended that members hold press conferences this week at ports, local veteran halls and factories to sell their agenda aimed at protecting Americans' security here and on the battlefield."
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PennPatriot has some good thoughts regarding the Santorum/Casey race. Although Casey is up in the polls, this article demonstrates that there may be some cracks beginning to emerge....
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PA Activists Aren't Forgetting...
 Pennsylvania activists are still peeved at members of the PA General Assembly for giving themselves a huge raise. And they are vowing not to forget it. They've come up with a pretty cool bumper sticker to express their displeasure...
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I just discovered this website: TheBlackGOP.com. It' s really cool. Check it out.
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More Q&A's Please...
During a breakfast a few years ago, Lyn Nofziger told me presidents should hold more press conferences with Q&A sessions. His reasoning: They prevent controversies from building up too long before being addressed. Like John Kennedy before him, Ronald Reagan was able to use the media's questions to advance his campaign aspirations. As a gubernatorial candidate, Reagan used Q&A sessions to overcome the myth that he was merely an actor. (Granted, there were some predictable gaffes, but overall, this strategy was a huge success and proved Reagan wasn't merely an "empty suit.") And when Nofziger ran Governor Reagan's communications office, the practice continued. Unfortunately, according to Nofziger, President Reagan's handlers in the White House would not allow him to hold weekly Q&A sessions. Nofziger believes this was a mistake. It seems that after five years, the Bush team has finally decided to follow Nofziger's advice. By holding frequent news conferences and speeches with Q&A, Bush is sending a signal of openness. Some people, who view the media as the enemy, call this tack "appeasement." But while the primary goal of any politician is to advance his strategic goals -- not to necessarily make the media happy -- doing the former is sometimes necessary to achieve the latter. And keep in mind, the target audience isn't the press corps -- it is the public. In a sense, the media is a prop. Bush is using them to show the public he is being open. For example, When Bush called on Helen Thomas today, he realized he wasn't going to win her over. But calling on her sends a signal that he isn't afraid of answering tough questions. Of course, there are certainly downsides to openness. One problem with holding frequent press conferences is that he may not have any new information to give. Again, while this is a problem, I still believe I'd err on the side of encouraging more communication. Another danger is that the more a politician speaks, the more likely it is that gaffes will occur. No doubt, that is the underlying reason this closely-guarded White House has heretofore eschewed Q&A sessions. In fairness, they do have a point: I'm listening to his press conference right now, and President Bush has lost his cool a couple of times. He's trying to be funny, but it's not really working. He just accused a reporter of going to sleep during a previous press conference... Well, he isn't Ronald Reagan, and even if he was, you can't expect immediate results from any new strategy. But like any investment, I expect it will pay dividends in the long run.
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War Stories ...
A few days ago, I asked you for your campaign "war stories" regarding unethical behavior in political campaigns. I received this email from a reader, and thought I would share it with you. Note: I have removed the name of the alleged campaign, but the story still illustrated an example of what may have been "unethical" campaigning. Additionally, it should serve as a warning to young conservatives of the hardball nature of politics. Yes, there are people out there who will seek to take advantage of you ... While I was campaigning for XXXX in the last four days of the election, I got a phone call from a New York reporter saying that she would love to get footage of a young, passionate collegiate engaged in political action. She said she was a producer from HBO, and completely non-partisan. Naively, I admit, I permitted her and her husband to shoot footage of me walking door-to-door and interview me for over four hours. At one point, I got into my car and checked my messages, and had several panicky messages from the hierarchy of the XXX camp telling me to stop wherever I am, and to quit giving information to the enemy. Apparently this "non-partisan" interview was being executed by Alexandra Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi's daughter. Yeah, she wasn't a XXX campaign staffer, but it seemed too coincidental to be above board, ...How advantageous it would've been for them to have gotten something potentially very bad for the XXX campaign. Note: It is hard to tell whether this was an example of a legitimate interview or if it was, in fact, a "set-up." Either way, it is important for conservatives to be "wise as serpants and gentle as doves."
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"Mudcat's" Advice for Dems...
Virginia political consultant Dave "Mudcat" Saunders has co-written yet another playbook for how Democrats can take back the White House. The title is, "Foxes in the Henhouse: How the Republicans Stole the South and the Heartland and What the Democrats Must Do to Run 'em Out." According to The Roanoke Times, the book recommends Democrats to the following: Lose "the wuss factor" and bone up on the culture of country people -- even if it means forgetting about the women's studies professors and the gay-rights activists. (They'll vote for Democrats regardless, the authors argue.)
Instead, concentrate on broadening the base: Show rural people in the South and the heartland that, while you may not personally play the banjo, hunt deer or go to NASCAR races, you appreciate that they do.
If urban areas tend to go Democrat and suburban/exurban areas go Republican, "The swing vote is what's left, and it lives in rural America," Saunders says. "These people have been voting Republican, but they're not really Republicans, and we need to show 'em why."
Democrats need to reframe the debate and start talking about what rural Americans really worry about, he says.
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Our good friend, Ellen Dunagan, was quoted prominently in last Sunday's Washington Post Job Section. Here's some good advice we can all benefit from... "Ellen Dunagan, a 36-year-old career coach with Traverse Management Solutions in Arlington, had a similar realization. "Resumes are important, but not as important as how you present yourself once you get in the door. My old employers were actually good sources of future employment, and that door should not be closed shut."Kudos to Ellen for her continued work to mentor job seekers!
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GOP Insiders Working Against Black Candidates?
Recently, GOP leaders have talked a lot about the need for more black Republicans to seek public office. But talk is cheap. Over at NewsMax, Paul Weyrich claims some GOP insiders are working behind the scenes to undermine two black Republican candidates...
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Ethics in Campaigns...
This coming Saturday, I will be part of a panel discussion at American University on the topic of ethics in campaigns. Obviously, I am anticipating questions such as: "Is negative campaigning ethical?" and "where do you draw the line between hardball politics and being unethical." The truth is, this is a very important subject to teach -- especially in a business where there is no prize awarded for "2nd place." I wish more young political operatives were exposed to these ideas before they are thrown into campaigns. Please email me your thoughts, ethical dilemmas, and campaign horror stories. I'd like to read some of the best emails during the panel discussion...
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As the Washington Post reports today, "Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has bagged a big one"... "Terry Nelson, who served as national political director for President Bush's reelection race in 2004, has signed on as a senior adviser to McCain's Straight Talk America political action committee."
I've had the privilege and honor of working directly under Terry, on a day-to-day basis. I can attest to the fact that he is one of the smartest and hardest-working Republican leaders out there. This is yet another major coup for the McCain campaign.
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